2008-02-03
Time to throw my political hat in the ring...
The time has come to say something that I've wanted to say for months. The reason I have not said anything earlier is because I was worried about alienating all two people who might be reading this on a regular basis, and maintaining this high level of readership is very important to me. But alas, Super-Duper Tuesday is this Tuesday, and it is time I dispense my political thinking to the blogosphere. Particularly since the CIA seems to think I am an extremist; we'll see what happens when they realize I am a bloody moderate!Ian's Political Logic
- If you are a Democrat, and you want the Republicans to lose, then you must vote for Obama. Obama can beat any Republican on the ticket if he runs a solid campaign.
- If you are a Republican, and you want to keep the White House in your party's hands, then you must vote for McCain. He is the only Republican who can beat either Democratic candidate. However, I doubt he can beat Obama, so you will also need Hillary to get nominated by the Democrats. If Hillary gets nominated, McCain will win hands down -- as long as he doesn't have a stroke before November.
- If your main concern is having a woman President, you need Mitt Romney or Mike Huckabee to get nominated on the Republican side. Otherwise, Hillary cannot win a national election.
Hillary can certainly beat Barack for the nomination, but this should terrify the Democrats, because Hillary will never beat McCain. He is a moderate, a bi-partisan guy, a war hero, anti-fraud (and note, that the Clintons are extremely fraudulent, whether you like them or not, they pardoned drug dealers and criminals who they were friends with), and far more personable than Hillary. Hillary is hated by roughly 30% of the country. She is married to a President that was (albeit wrongly) impeached, which will surely come up. And she will be hard fought to keep Democratic Party voters like myself who despised Clinton in his later years. If it comes down to Hillary versus McCain, as an independent minded person, I will probably vote McCain.
I am for Obama.
Note, I don't think he will be a great President. But he won't be worse than Bill Clinton was -- someone who had little experience and still managed to do quite well for about four years in the middle of his eight years in office. (Although, it should be noted, Bill really sucked at international affairs like Bush too. He just didn't make as gargantuan of a mess as the current administration has.) I see Barack as a Jimmy Carter figure. He will last four years if elected. He will make mistakes. But he will be honest, honorable, and probably mend a lot of wounds with the global community. US hegemony is disappearing regardless, so you might as well go out with someone who is likable and doesn't get the whole world riled up. Like Carter, Iran will probably be his undoing, but that's okay. At least he sees the glass as half-full when it comes to America's position in the world, rather than how it really is -- four-fifths empty and leaking from the bottom.
Plus, Barack has the support of a lot of Republicans. He is a shoo-in for the national election. Nominating Hillary is the only way the Democrats can lose the national election. And for die hard Democrats that should give them pause. They still can't believe that Kerry lost to Bush. They spent so much time hating Bush that they didn't think about how to convince other voters not to vote for him. And it bit them in the ass. I am hoping this time around Democrats have figured out that you need to look forward to the national election. It seems most of the Democrats in Congress and other political offices have. A majority of Democrats, including the Governor of Kansas, who stand no chance of being nominated as Hillary's VP running mate (should she be nominated), have flocked to endorse Obama. There is a reason for this. Hillary can't win.
So I have thrown my hat in the ring. Even before Iowa... I have to admit, I contributed to Barack's campaign -- 20-smackaroos! So I'm not just coming up with this because it is hip among college students. I'm invested, man! I keep telling Birgit that if he gets elected, we'll have the President's ear!
Here's my breakdown. I will vote for the top most person over others depending whether or not they are on the ballot come November:
Ian's Picks as of February
1. Barack Obama (if the Democrats don't nominate him, I will go nuts!)
2. John McCain (he is a bona fide ass hole, but I think he would be a far better President than Hillary)
3. Bill Richardson (I am hoping he will be a VP candidate)
4. Al Gore (just because I really don't like Hillary)
5. Hillary Clinton (I would choose her third, though, if Bill Richardson is on her ticket)
*. Honorable Mention: Jesse Ventura (because feather boas would be so cool in the White House)